期。

[18]假设该污染物排放变异系数为0.6。

[19]该政策的英文全名是Policy for Implementation ofToxics Standards for Inland Surface Waters, Enclosed Bays, and Estuaries ofCalifornia，简称为State Implementation Policy。

[20]《美国环境法概论》 王曦著 武汉大学出版社，1992年9月

[21] “美国水环境污染的依法治理（篇一）— 水环境治理法令的建立”和“美国水环境污染的依法治理（篇二）— 水环境治理法令的执行”，科学对社会的影响，Vol. 1，2007.

[22]《制药工业水污染物排放标准发酵类》编制说明（征求意见稿） 《制药工业水污染物排放标准－发酵类》编制组 二○○七年九月

[23]TheChomsky Sessions II, Science, Religion and Human Nature, Part I, September 18,2011 By Noam Chomsky and Michael Albert  http://www.zcommunications.org/the-chomsky-sessions-ii-science-religion-and-human-nature-part-i-by-noam-chomsky

[24]Bryan Caplan  RationalIgnorance vs. Rational Irrationality 1999 http://highmesa.us/ratirnew.pdf

[25]Aristotle: Logic， Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, http://www.iep.utm.edu/aris-log/, Louis F. Groarke

[26]有的中文文献将它翻译为“令人满意的”是不正确的。这是由2个英文字组合而成的拼装字，一般认为是由Satisfying和Sufficing组成，以下是它的一种英文定义：Adecision-making strategy that attempts to accepts some minimal acceptablethreshold of a variable, but does not necessarily maximize its value。也有人认为是由Satisfying和Sacrificing组成，表示Choosing a satisfactory option while sacrificing potentiallybetter ones。这两者的意思在本质上是一样的。

[27]中文文献中一般将这个字翻译为启发式或探试，与其本意相差甚远。赫伯特•赛蒙本人把它等同于Rules of Thumb（Selectivity, based on rules of thumb or “heuristics”, tendsto guide the search into promising regions, so that solutions will generally befound after search of only a tiny part of the total space. 见Rational Decision-Making in BusinessOrganizations, Nobel Memorial Lecture, 8 December, 1978, Herbert A. Simon,http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1978/simon-lecture.pdf）

[28]  Benjamin Hilbig 等人将直觉，略估，和审慎思考（Deliberate Thinking）作为判断和决策的基本过程，并以Effortless和Effort-Reducing 分别作为直觉和略估的特征。见Think or blink — is therecognition heuristic an “intuitive” strategy? by Benjamin E. Hilbig, Sabine G.Scholl and Rüdiger F. Pohl, Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 5, No. 4, July2010, pp. 300–309

[29]根据丹尼尔·卡纳曼的2002年诺贝尔奖讲演辞，他和阿莫斯•特沃斯基合作的第一篇论文就是检验对统计精深的研究者在